Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bulls have cheered bitcoin’s more-or-less positive start to 2020, despite the rise coming off the back of a major escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The bitcoin price, which limped through December following six months of declines, dropped below the psychological $7,000 per bitcoin mark early in the new year only to bounce back again a few hours later. However, crypto analysts have warned bitcoin trading volume is now at its lowest since April, with volume down 90% from its June 2019 high—and when volume is low markets are more likely to make sudden, volatile moves.
“The seven-day average real trading volume continued downwards this week,” analysts at Arcane Research wrote this week. “The first day of the year registered as little as $192 million in volume. These levels have not been seen since April 2019. Although this could be related to the holiday period and less activity during weekends, this is not a positive trend for the leading cryptocurrency in the space.”
Bitcoin trading volumes are now almost back to the level they were at the beginning of 2019—when the bitcoin price was under $4,000. However, there are a number of upcoming dates in 2020 that could see bitcoin interest return to July levels, including the planned launch of Facebook’s libra cryptocurrency, crypto platform Bakkt’s Starbucks project, and bitcoin’s May halving event—when the number of new bitcoin rewarded to miners will be halved.
Bitcoin Bulls Are Ignoring One Big Problem, Forbes, Jan 6
Bitcoin’s price has hit a new record for 2020, reaching as high as $8,438 before retracing slightly.
At 23:30 UTC on Jan. 7, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization began a strong upward trend from $8,080 to above $8,400 before topping out at $8,438 in just over 40 minutes.
The move to fresh 2020 highs comes after Iranian missiles struck U.S. and coalition bases in Iraq, causing traders to reallocate capital into safe-haven assets such as gold and oil away from riskier assets.
Joshua Green, head of trading at Digital Asset Capital Management – a cryptocurrency trading firm said the BTC rally was a response to the unfolding events in Iraq.
“You are also seeing oil and gold up strongly,” Green said.
At the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.41 percent while the S&P 500 index is down 0.28 percent.
Crude oil has risen significantly and is up 4.3 percent while the spot price of gold has is up 2.19 percent to around $1,608 per troy ounce.
BTC is now looking to cement its position as the leading safe-haven asset, at least in crypto, amid heightened geopolitical tensions.
Other notable cryptocurrencies such as ether and XRP have experienced little gain, with XRP down 3.5 percent while ether is slightly in the green, up by 0.09 percent, Messari and CoinDesk data show.
Bitcoin Increase Driven by $500M Rise in Tether’s Market Capitalization
The market capitalization of Tether (USDT) has been mostly stagnant since August of 2019. However, yesterday the unexpected happened: out of nowhere, the market capitalization of USDT increased by $500M on CoinMarketCap. Needless to say, everyone was confused. In just five minutes, Tether’s market capitalization increased from $4.14 billion at $4.65 billion. Tether’s treasury, however, showed no change to its total assets. CoinMarketCap was also apparently the only one to make this sudden update. CoinGecko, a competitor, kept Tether’s market capitalization the same.
So, it’s clear that this was merely CoinMarketCap updating their metrics and not fresh USDT being minuted. However, it was enough to set off the bots—and Bitcoin (BTC) proceeded to rise just shortly after CoinMarketCap’s update. Even though CoinMarketCap’s update was not based on new USDT entering the market, cryptocurrency traders certainly interpreted it as such. At 11:54 UTC, CoinMarketCap increased Tether’s market capitalization by $500M. Around 5 hours later, at 17:00 UTC or so, Bitcoin began its upward ascent from $7,600 to $7,950 by 19:54 UTC.
Overall, the circumstances of Bitcoin’s rise yesterday shows just how dependent it is on Tether (USDT) for its rallies as of late. As BeInCrypto previously reported, around 70% of Bitcoin rallies were correlated strongly with fresh USDT minting. It seems clear that algorithmic bots picked up on the increased USDT market capitalization and took it to be a definite buy signal, despite no new UDST being issued at all. This just underscores how robot-dominant the cryptocurrency market has become and how even basic market data can be used to manipulate trading.
A New Bitcoin Bull Market Is Nearing, Says Legendary Trader
The most followed trader on Twitter, Peter Brandt, made his Bitcoin Live Crypto report available for free last month. In this issue, the veteran analyst presented two bullish scenarios for the king of cryptocurrencies. The first script involved a short-term bearish price action that would see the massive capitulation of bulls. The trader saw bitcoin violating the lower boundary of a multi-year channel and dropping all the way down to $5,324. In this scenario, the cryptocurrency would have bottomed out in July 2020.
In the second plot, bitcoin turned immediately bullish after months of correcting. A month after Brandt released the report, we’re seeing bitcoin follow one of the two scripts. If you haven’t guessed by now, Brandt’s immediate bullish scenario is playing out. According to the seasoned trader, bitcoin bulls would hold the lower boundary of the multi-year channel, which would indicate that whales were accumulating positions as opposed to profit-taking. The accumulation would serve as a base that can catapult the cryptocurrency to a new all-time high.
Bitcoin’s bullish price action in the last few days suggests that bulls are respecting the multi-year diagonal support. To validate this view, bitcoin must take out the bear channel as drawn on Brandt’s chart. The good news is that bitcoin is now trading above the bear channel. In his latest tweet, Brandt showed that the cryptocurrency has broken out of a six-month long downtrend.
Bitcoin Shows Signs as Safe-Haven Asset During Global Turmoil
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran served as an example of how Bitcoin has evolved as a safe-haven asset in times of global turmoil.
Bitcoin is Becoming a Hedging Asset
The U.S.-Iran relations reached a critical point after American forces carried out a predawn airstrike at an Iraqi airport in Baghdad on Jan. 2. The air raid led to the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iran’s Popular Mobilization Forces.
Following the attack, President Donald Trump threatened to hit 52 Iranian sites “very hard” if Iran dared to retaliate. However, his ultimatum was not heeded and Iran launched a series of missile attacks against two Iraqi bases housing American troops on Jan. 8.
According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin showed its power as a “wartime safe haven” as it rose over 20 percent while the series of events unfolded.
“I think Bitcoin just got its first successful beta test of being a wartime safe haven, this is a pretty big test for Bitcoin,” said Woo.
Along the same lines, Messari published an infographic depicting how demand for the flagship cryptocurrency surged following Soleimani’s assassination.
The spike in interest took Bitcoin to climb up from a low of $6,960 on Jan. 2 to a high of $8,440 on Jan. 8. As the U.S. vowed to back away from all-out conflict with Iran and to renew the diplomacy between both nations, investors sold their holdings, consequently, pushing BTC’s price down.
This is not the first time that Bitcoin proved itself as a hedge asset during times of geopolitical and financial turmoil.
In 2013, while the Cypriot financial crisis was taking place the pioneer cryptocurrency entered a bull rally. During this time, BTC skyrocketed 1,950%. The €10 million international bailout for Cyprus marked the peak of the bull run.
A similar phenomenon unraveled when the trade war between the U.S. and China intensified in May 2019. As Chinese investors were forced to move out of the yuan in anticipation of a possible devaluation, Bitcoin broke above the $6,500 resistance level and surged to nearly $14,000.
Bitcoin Price To Rise Above $20,000 In 2020, Says Bitpay’s Singh
It’s the season of Bitcoin price predictions. Only days after Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev made the case for a $50,000 Bitcoin price in 2020, Bitpay Chief Commercial Officer Sonny Singh has also shared his belief that the crypto asset will hit new all-time highs this year.
Notably, Singh shared what turned out to be a correct prediction that Bitcoin would get close to $15,000 in 2019 with Bloomberg a little more than a year ago. “This year, I’m going to make a prediction,” Singh told Bloomberg’s Taylor Riggs on Wednesday. “I think Bitcoin passes the all-time high and goes passed $20,000 this year.”
While most other Bitcoin pundits have pointed to the upcoming halving as the main catalyst for a Bitcoin price pump in 2020, Singh offered an alternative theory. The halving event is expected to occur in May, and it will cut the number of new Bitcoin that are created roughly every ten minutes in half. “The technical and high-frequency trading is what drives this market in Bitcoin,” said Singh. “Any time you have an unforeseen circumstance like the Iran incident that happened a couple of days ago that adds new buyers to the market, they weren’t expecting that and that bumps it up. And that little bump actually in buying pressure really drives it to be up, next thing you know, 20% in two days.”
In Signh’s view, the Bitcoin market is largely driven by traders who follow technical indicators, which is why unforeseen events where new buyers enter the market have had such a large impact on the cryptocurrency’s past price movements. Singh pointed to last year’s surprise announcement from Facebook about their Libra project as an example of this phenomenon.
Bitcoin lost momentum, but markets believe in its 2020 outlook
Cryptocurrency did not create investors a festive mood at the end of the year, but with the beginning of the new year, some of them had an opportunity to sell bitcoins at a higher price. Geopolitics and false signals as a sharp increase in USDT issue by $500 mln created a basis for growth for the bitcoin, and then for the whole crypto market. A sharp rise in the USDT emission perceived as a positive signal for growth, so bots start buying after such news. What happened once again indicates a growing share of algorithmic trading in the crypto sector.
As a result, Bitcoin jumped up to $8,400, where it faced severe resistance. Apart from mistaken news on USDT emission, the geopolitical tension around Iran and the U.S. began to decrease. It became clear that both sides are not interested in further escalation and markets started to return to normal functioning. For Bitcoin, this means a decline.
Besides, as the crypto market began to grow, the technical picture pointed to a significant overbought of the Bitcoin. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was even higher than when the bitcoin rebounded to $10K at the end of October 2019, when China’s head Xi Jinping made his famous statement related to China’s course on the blockchain development. It is not surprising that now we are witnessing a rollback in prices. However, the cautious nature of the reversal suggests that the level of optimism is still quite high.
Several well-known traders, including Peter Brandt, still hold bullish views on bitcoin. One of the leaders in the analysis has tweeted several bullish scenarios for bitcoin in 2020. In the first scenario, we will first face bear pressure which will push the Bitcoin down to $5K and then see the rebound while the lower boundary is held. In the second scenario, we are already out of the descending channel, which lasts from the summer, and the long accumulation of the asset will be the main reason for its growth. Also, optimists are waiting for Starbucks and Bakkt to collaborate, and for bitcoin usage to increase in the real world.
Study: Why The Upcoming Halving May Not Be The Catalyst For The Next Bitcoin Bull Run
By Jide Idowu
As popularly believed, bitcoin halving would create some form of scarcity, making people scrambling for the very little amount of bitcoin minted just to have a piece of the pie.
However, a new Messari study shows this might not be true. It further went on to say slashing down blockchain reward for miners doesn’t create a demand for the cryptocurrency asset.
Messari Debunks Myths
Among many other names, bitcoin has been dubbed the best performing asset of the decade. The topmost cryptocurrency asset by market cap, bitcoin, is currently the central focus as the cryptocurrency community patiently anticipates a major event associated with the asset.
However, a new study carried out by Messari, which is dedicated to collecting and analyzing data about bitcoin and other crypto assets, reveals that it was time to “debunk some popular theories for the upcoming halving.”
Messari in its report clearly stated that “n of 2 does not lead to statistically significant results!” It further went on to say “the complexity and evolving nature of cryptocurrency markets” clearly means “there remains no consensus on what to expect.”
Two Major Events Fail To Yield Any Positivity Despite High Expectations
Though many may dispute this report, two recent events may be proving Messari report true.
Firstly, the Litecoin halving which occurred on Monday, August 5, 2019. Despite the crypto asset’s status, currently, the 6th crypto asset by market cap, pre halving record shows LTC making swift gains as reported by ZyCrypto, trading close to a hundred dollars per coin at the time. Five months later, LTC currently trades $47.48 per coin, more than half the price it traded before and shortly after it halved.
Secondly, the Ripple Swell conference, held between Thursday, 7 November 2019 through Friday, 8 November 2019, in Singapore. Despite influential personalities in attendance, impressive past records of the token around the same time of the event, and high expectations of the asset, the XRP coin failed to ‘SWELL’, in fact, the crypto asset has seen over 30% decrease in price since the last SWELL conference.
Bitcoin could breach descending channel to $9800 by next month
By Manu Naik
January 7 was a momentous day for Bitcoin, having finally crossed the $8000 level for the first time since late-November. With such a great start to 2020, Bitcoin could have more surprising upward price movements in store. BTC was valued at around $8100 at the time of writing, and indicators show the price could move further up in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin’s daily chart showed BTC in a descending channel formation since June last year, escorted by an overall decreasing volume trend since then. Channels tend to be continuation patterns, making an upward-facing breakout more likely in this scenario.
The 50-day moving average was seen moving under the price candles, supporting the concept of an upward movement in the short to medium-term. The price attempted to break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement line just days ago, and having failed, BTC price maintained its position above $7900.
The 200-day moving average, an indicator of long-term performance, looked bearish, and could be seen towering over the price candles, after having underwent a death cross in late-October.
However, the ‘hash ribbons’ indicator showed a ‘Buy’ signal at the time of writing, which has been in place since late-December. Including this time, the hash ribbons, invented by Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments, have only shown ‘Buy’ signals ten times in the history of Bitcoin. Also, following the indicator has managed to bring in average gains of over 5378%.
According to Edwards, since changes to difficulty can only occur every two weeks, difficulty lags the hashrate. So, the hash ribbons utilize this lag to predict miner capitulation, and potential buy-regions.
The difficulty was last adjusted on January 1, leaving only a few days till the difficulty recalibrate itself. Since Bitcoin touched a new all-time high hashrate last week, it is likely the difficulty will be adjusted upward in the coming days.
With BTC already moving above the Point of Control, Bitcoin could breakout upward from the pattern boundary, at least to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line at $9800, and potentially up to the 78.6% line at $11,600 within the next month.
If the price were to bounce down from the pattern boundary, BTC will likely find support at the 38.2% Fibonacci line, at around $7250, and further support at the channel mid-line. However, it seems unlikely, at this point, that Bitcoin will continue with such a move, and would likely rise back up to test the upper pattern boundary in the near future.
Bit-comment: Bitcoin griped between important levels
Bitcoin managed to bounce back to $8,100 after the drop to $7,700, while the entire market capitalization of the crypto market rose by $15bn over the week. The Bitcoin Greed and Fear Index rose from last month’s Extreme Fear to Neutral at 49, reflecting positive market dynamics. The market found support in the form of a 50-day average, as slight decline below this level increased the purchasing interest of the bulls. At the same time, a more important level – 200-day average – is now above the current price, acting as a pressure factor in the upward jumps.
As the volume of algorithmic trading increases on the part of institutional investors, we could increasingly frequently see bots triggered sharp jumps in either side based on technical indicators and news. On the one hand, this will significantly limit the prospects for sudden lasting growth, while on the other hand, panic sentiment may also be restrained.
Bitcoin blasts through key resistance as analysts eye potentially major upside
Bitcoin is currently in the process of breaking out of its recent consolidation phase, as BTC’s bulls are pushing the crypto up towards its key resistance levels around the $8,300 region.
Although it does appear that the cryptocurrency is currently struggling to break above its recent highs of $8,500, its current momentum does appear to be emblematic of significant bull strength.
Analysts are now noting that it appears that Bitcoin’s current rally is the result of a recently formed bullish consolidation phase, but buyers must sustain the crypto above a key technical level it just broke through in order for the rally to have long-term significance.
Bitcoin Rallies Towards Resistance as Bulls Attempt to Spark Continuation
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up 4.5 percent at its current price of $8,520, which marks a notable surge from its recent lows of just over $8,000 that were set this past week when bears attempted to thwart BTC’s recent uptrend.
Previously, bulls have attempted on multiple occasions to propel Bitcoin’s price past the resistance that existed around its range highs of $8,400, although each rally proved to be fleeting due to significant selling pressure around its current price levels.
In the near-term, it is highly likely that Bitcoin sees immense volatility, as it is currently breaking out of an extended consolidation phase. Big Cheds, a popular crypto analyst on Twitter, explained in a tweet just prior to the ongoing surge:
“Bitcoin Daily chart – Bullish consolidation while trading above EMA 8.”
Sustained Movement Above This Key BTC Level Could Spark the Next Major Rally
Teddy, another popular trader and analyst on Twitter, explained in a tweet from before the recent rally that Bitcoin was struggling to move above its 21EMA, which is a key technical resistance that the cryptocurrency is currently blasting through.
“BITCOIN Weekly closed below the 21EMA and is currently trading below it, again. Failure to break it, price will move to longer and slower ones to confirm trend – in this case: – 89EMA (white line) – 200EMA (red line),” he said while pointing to the levels seen on the below chart.
If bulls are unable to sustain Bitcoin above this level for an extended period of time, the retrace below this level could ignite a massive sell off that sends BTC reeling down to its near-term support levels at $8,000 and $7,700.
3 MAJOR BITCOIN PRICE MODELS PREDICT VERY DIFFERENT FUTURES
The Bitcoin market price has exhibited significant volatility and surprise moves. In the 11 years since inception, BTC has moved dramatically, starting of from negligible lows, only to conquer $20,000 prices.
BITCOIN MODELS RANGE FROM UNBRIDLED GAINS TO GRADUAL GROWTH
The spectacular climb sets the stage for the coming years, when BTC is much more well-known and accepted. From now on, the most optimistic view is that BTC will continue to much higher valuations. But the exact size of the gains hinges on three chief models.
The most optimistic pace, which is yet expected to take BTC “to the moon”, expects the exponential gains to continue. This scenario envisions almost no limit to price gains, and matches the predictions of hyper-bitcoinization.
The most widely accepted models were ushered in by crypto analysts and influencers, and hinge on part chart analysis, part wild predictions.
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Tamer scenarios include robust, though more gradual price growth. Models also allow for a relatively wide range and volatility, while BTC keeps a long-term bullish prediction. The third possible scenario envisions bitcoin behaving as a traditional asset, with only very gradual price moves.
PREDICTIONS TAMER AFTER RELATIVELY SLOW GROWTH IN 2019
The specific behavior of BTC re-sparks expectations of exponential models. However, most of the time, bitcoin makes fast gains within weeks, then hovers sideways for a relatively longer time span. The new year started off with optimism, but so far the price swings are relatively smaller.
With futures trading, fast, risky price moves as seen in the past are almost impossible. Instead, traders flock to tighter resistance and support levels, with price swings limited by predictions in the shorter term. This matches the classic model, where bitcoin price growth decreases much faster. At current prices, BTC is already at “moon” levels in comparison to its initial trading, and repeating record prices or breaking out is not guaranteed.
In 2020, a re-estimation of models is also happening, with the most outlandish predictions abandoned, with more support for the classical model. Any rallies are viewed as possibly happening years ahead in the future, instead of months.
The effect of Bitcoin’s fourth reward halving is also disputable, with some seeing the price spike after the event due to scarcity. Others view May 2020 as a possible trigger for a price rally, though with an unknown final outcome. Currently, bitcoin once again faces the $8,700 level as resistance, with support established at above $8,000. At these prices, BT
Despite Bitcoin’s plunge by 3percent, analysts still optimistic
Recently, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) just crashed by 3% from $8,910 to a local low of $8,585. This Bitcoin’s plunge represents the lowest the crypto has traded in the last 18 hours. Bitcoin’s plunge, does not come as a surprise, considering the volatility the cryptocurrency markets have seen over the past few days.
However, it is expected to go on the high back because of Satoshi Vision variant of Bitcoin that also dropped 35% from its local peak price.
Satoshi’s contribution Satoshi Vision variant of Bitcoin was on the rise yesterday after Craig S. Wright, had access to an entire stash of the cryptocurrency. The crypto surged well from below $200 to as high as $440 in 24 hours within a day.
It allowed BSV to surpass the Cash fork in the cryptocurrency rankings, taking the fourth spot behind XRP, Ethereum, and Bitcoin (BTC). However, since the $440 peak, the altcoin has crashed, plunging by dozens of percent owing to many reasons. However, Bitcoin’s price crash has left a question of if Bitcoin’s price will continue to go lower.
Beyond Bitcoin’s plunge After Bitcoin’s price dropped, analysts have continued to analyze the situation and predict future happenings via Twitter. Although they see a bright future for Bitcoin, Big Cheds explained that with the latest move, Bitcoin has started to form what is known as an “M top,” which has price action shaped like an M. Cheds explained that the pattern is in its middle stages, not yet forming the entire latter half of the “M” in the topping pattern.
But should it play out in full, BTC could fall as low as $8,200, the analyst’s chart suggests.
Before that, Filb Filb, a prominent Bitcoin trader called Bitcoin’s sudden surge to $10,000 and subsequent decline to the $6,000s before these two moves happened, posted the below charts on TradingView.
He explained in the chat that Bitcoin shows signs that investors should be long, implying that more upside is imminent.
According to his chart, short-term charts may have flipped neutral or bearish temporarily, but the medium-term charts remain bullish, implying that prices are likely to return higher later.
Another analyst, Murad Mahmudov, formerly of Goldman Sachs, recently wrote on Twitter that “bears are deluded at best, dishonest at worst,” drawing attention to the below chart.
The upcoming halving could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs
Ali Martinez, Cryptoslate
Bitcoin is only 117 days away from a block rewards reduction event that affects the number of tokens that can be generated every 10 minutes. Based on historical data, this event tends to serve as a catalyst that propels the flagship cryptocurrency into new all-time highs.
The Halving Event
Bitcoin goes through a fixed process known as the halving every time 210,000 BTC blocks are mined. This is considered the core economic model in BTC’s protocol that guarantees that coins are issued at a steady pace. The halving takes place, approximately, every four years. It cuts in half the rewards miners get for mining a block, consequently, decreasing the rate of issuance.
Around May 12, 2020, at exactly block 630,000, miners who are currently being awarded 12.5 new BTC for every block they solve will only be rewarded with 6.25 BTC per block. The inflation rate of this cryptocurrency will also be impacted for an extended period of time as the reduction in future supply increases.
The series of block rewards reduction events are scheduled to occur until the total supply of 21 million BTC are mined. These events could prolong until 2140 when the block reward would drop below 1 satoshi, assuming that miners will be around in the next 120 years.
Previous Block Rewards Reduction Events
To date, there have only been two halving events since Bitcoin was launched on Jan. 3, 2009. These events have proven to be an important catalyst that pushes the price of this crypto up before and after they take place. BTC’s disinflationary monetary policy has allowed its value to enhance significantly as it becomes more scarce.
The 2012 Halving
On Nov. 28, 2012, Bitcoin went through its first halving, at a block height of 210,000. During that time, the block rewards provided to miners dropped from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC. Such a significant supply reduction had a great impact on the price of the pioneer cryptocurrency, which was perceived in anticipation of the event and after it occurred.
After reaching a market bottom of $2 on Nov. 19, 2011, Bitcoin entered a year-long bull rally. This cryptocurrency saw its price appreciate by nearly 500% in anticipation of the first halving. By the time the event concluded on Nov. 28, 2012, BTC was trading around $12. From that point, Bitcoin skyrocketed over 97x peaking at an all-time high of $1,177 on Nov. 30, 2013.
The 2016 Halving
The second block rewards reduction event took place on July 9, 2016, at a block height of 420,000. At the time, the 25 BTC mining reward halved to 12.5 BTC per block. Like the first halving, this one also had serious implications on the price of Bitcoin.
On Jan. 14, 2015, Bitcoin hit a market bottom at a price of $164 following the 2014 bear market. Since then, BTC surged by nearly 300 percent to a high of $650 on the day the halving was set to occur. After the pioneer cryptocurrency went through its second halving on July 9, 2016, it entered a parabolic advance that saw its price increase by 29x. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $19,765 on Dec. 17, 2017.
History Repeats Itself
The previous halvings have demonstrated to be a significant pivotal point in Bitcoin’s trend. They tend to propel the price of the flagship cryptocurrency into new all-time highs. Therefore, the upcoming block rewards reduction event could have similar implications.
Thus far, it seems like Bitcoin reached a market bottom on Dec. 15, 2018, at a price of $3,150. Since then, this cryptocurrency is up over 180 percent and is currently trading around $8,700. Now, investors appear to anticipate higher prices as the date approaches.
The Wisdom of the Crowd
Alex Kruger recently ran a poll on Twitter that involved over 4,000 participants. Kruger asked his followers what they thought will be the high of the year for Bitcoin.
The results show that 47 percent of the respondents believe that BTC would trade above $20,000 sometime this year. Around 28 percent are convinced that this crypto would peak between $14,000 and $19,999. Meanwhile, the remaining 25 percent stated that it will trade at $13,999 or lower.
The survey reveals that nearly 75 percent of the participants think that Bitcoin will double in price this year.
Along the same lines, some of the most prominent technical analysts in the crypto community affirm that Bitcoin entered a new bull market last week. The break of the $8,500 resistance level, was seen as a make-or-break point that could have set out the stage for a bull run. According to Mohit Sorout, a partner at Bitazu Capital, a new uptrend is emerging.
However, there are other analysts who disagree with the bullish outlook. Chris Slaughter, the founder and CEO of LVL, for instance, has been studying a fractal since Dec. 27, 2019, that has proven to be correct. This pattern anticipated the recent rally that took Bitcoin above $8,500. Now, Slaughter estimates a downturn in the market that could push BTC to “new lows.”
The wisdom of the crowd is rarely correct, especially in the cryptocurrency market. Under this premise, since 75 percent of the market is bullish, the probabilities for the bearish outlook increase.
The different perspectives about Bitcoin’s future have the overall market sentiment in a “neutral” stage, according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. It remains to be seen whether history will repeat itself and the upcoming halving will trigger an inflow of capital in the market that allows BTC to reach new all-time highs.
Bitcoin Just Surpassed $9,000: It Means a Full-Blown Crypto Rally is Just Beginning
After two days of crypto market consolidation in the high-$8,000s, Bitcoin (BTC) just broke 3% higher from the $8,700 range equilibrium to tap the key $9,000 psychological and technical resistance on Binance and other top exchanges for the first time in just over two months.
Since hitting $9,000, the crypto asset has paused, retracing to $8,950 as of the time of writing this as Bitcoin seemingly encountered vast selling pressure at $9,000.
While the cryptocurrency has yet to make a daily price close above they key $9,000 level, analysts say that it sets a positive precedent for this market’s trend. In fact, a prominent trader says that a 30% rally to $11,500 might just be next.
This should lead to equally as bullish price action for other crypto assets, including Ethereum, XRP, and the rest of the nine yards, so to speak.
Crypto Indicators Flip Bullish Across the Board
Indicators all over the crypto market have recently flipped bullish, implying another leg higher is imminent.
Adaptive Capital’s Murad Mahmudov, formerly of Goldman Sachs, recently wrote on Twitter that “bears are deluded at best, dishonest at worst,” drawing attention to the below chart which shows that BTC has crossed above a number of key moving averages. These are including but not limited to the 128-day simple moving average (SMA), 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), 50-week SMA, and 100-week SMA.
This chart indicates the momentum in the cryptocurrency market is almost entirely bullish. Should BTC reclaim the 200-day SMA as shown on his chart, a full-blown rally could be had, for BTC trending above all these levels is a rare and auspicious occurence.
That’s far from the only reason analysts are saying this move is indicative of an impending crypto bull market.
The Lucid Stop and Reversal indicator, which “signals a stop and an entry in the opposite direction” when it reverses, just printed an extremely bullish signal; the indicator printed its first buy signal since March 2019, which was prior to a 330% rally that brought BTC above $10,000 and crypto assets dozens of percent higher.
Fundamentals Equally as Strong
This latest surge higher comes hot on the heels of a report from Glassnode, a crypto and blockchain analytics firm, that the BTC network’s mean hash rate (per a one-day rolling moving average) has just reached a 1-year high of 125 exahashes.
While there isn’t an instant correlation between Bitcoin’s hash rate and prices, the fact that miners continue to siphon resources into mining crypto assets bodes well for the long-term trend of this space.
Bitcoin On The Brink Of Massive Rally And Only 1 Thing Is Holding It Back
Bitcoin is climbing steadily above $9,000 against the US Dollar. BTC price could start a massive rally towards $10K and $11K if there is a daily close above $9,300.
Bitcoin price is gaining momentum above the $9,000 resistance area against the US Dollar.
A new 2020 high is formed near $9,185 and the price could continue to rise.
There was a break above a crucial declining channel with resistance near $8,475 on the daily chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair is now facing a significant resistance near $9,300, above which it could test $10,000.
Bitcoin Price Could Revisit $10K Soon
In the past few days, there were steady gains in bitcoin above the $8,000 and $8,200 resistance levels. The recent rise gained pace after BTC surpassed the $8,500 resistance area.
The daily chart suggests that the price broke many important hurdles near $8,400 and $8,500 to enter a positive zone. The first main hurdle was the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $10,579 high to $6,423 low.
More importantly, there was a break above a crucial declining channel with resistance near $8,475 on the daily chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin price settled above the $8,500 resistance and the 100-day simple moving average.
It is now trading near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $10,579 high to $6,423 low. It seems like the bulls are facing a crucial resistance near the $9,300 level (acted as a support and resistance on many occasions).
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Therefore, bitcoin needs to settle above the $9,300 area to continue higher. A successful daily close above the $9,300 resistance could open the doors for another rally towards the $10,000 and $11,000 levels in the coming days.
What If BTC Fails Near $9,300?
As stated, the $9,300 resistance area holds a lot of importance. If the BTC price fails to surpass $9,300, it could start a downside correction.
Initial support is near the $8,500 level (the recent breakout zone). However, the main support for the bulls and the current uptrend is near the $8,000 level. Additionally, the 100-day SMA is near the $8,000 level.
Hence, a daily close below $8,000 might lead the price towards the $7,200 and $7,000 support levels. Overall, the bitcoin price must climb above $9,300 to continue higher towards $10,000 and $11,000. If not, it could correct towards $8,000 or even $7,200.
Daily MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining momentum in the bullish zone.
Daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is slowly moving into the overbought zone.
Major Support Levels – $8,500 followed by $8,000.
Major Resistance Levels – $9,300, $10,000 and $10,550.
This Analysis Suggests Bitcoin’s Price May Plunge 50% to the $3,000s, Again
Over the past month, Bitcoin (BTC) has absolutely exploded higher. In fact, the cryptocurrency is up around 40% since the low of $6,400 put in during December of last year.
While many analysts have said that this jaw-dropping rally constitutes a macro reversal that will thrust BTC back into a decisively bullish phase, an analysis recently showed that the recent price action in the crypto market is eerily reminiscent of that seen prior to the 50% decline at the end of 2018.
Bitcoin Might Be Poised to Crash Again
Cryptocurrency trader “Rekt Tekashi” recently posted the two charts below, showing all of Bitcoin’s price action for the past three years alongside three indicators, the Guppy, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
While the charts may look innocuous at first glance, the analyst indicated that the current price action in the BTC market looks near identical to that seen in the middle of July of 2018, which saw Bitcoin see a false bear market breakout to only crash back down.
The similarities between these two market structures exist on the RSI, the MACD, and the Guppy, which all look effectively identical to what these indicators were registering back at that time.
Should Bitcoin follow the path it took in July of 2018, that means that the cryptocurrency market will flatline in the $7,000s before plunging to the $3,000s yet again by the time of the halving — a harrowing prospect for many investors.
And it isn’t only the above analysis that shows Bitcoin’s current breakout may just be a precursor to a further drop. Another trader noted that BTC’s price action since the $14,000 top in June is eerily reminiscent of that seen in the 2018 bear market, with both cycles seeing a downward price channel, an upward wedge-formed false breakout, declining volume, and signs of capitulation.
This also suggested a crash to the $3,000s could be had.
Some Beg to Differ, Provide Bullish Analyses Instead
While this scary fractal says that Bitcoin will be back at the multi-year lows by the time of the halving in the middle of May, some say the opposite will take place.
Prominent Bitcoin analyst Financial Survivalism released an extensive analysis on TradingView earlier this month that indicated BTC could hit $20,000 by July 1st, 2020, just six months away.
The commentator, who called BTC’s latest surge when prices were much lower than they are now, wrote in that TradingView post that there is a confluence of positive technical signs that suggest price appreciation is much more likely than downside. These include but are not limited to:
Bitcoin has printed a bullish weekly Lucid SAR candle for the first time since March 2019.
The Average Directional Index just saw a bullish crossover for the first time since March 2019.
The Coppock Curve is rolling higher, showing a trend that is quite similar to that seen in January 2019.
The Ichimoku Cloud on the daily has formed a bullish TK cross.
Bitcoin Made Early Investors Stinking Rich but It’s No Mastercard Killer
It is true that both Visa and Mastercard have done well in the last decade. Those who invested in the two financial giants have been enjoying steady gains over time with little downside risks. Nevertheless, bitcoin is still the king of the hill. No individual asset comes close to the cryptocurrency’s gains. But bitcoin is far from disrupting the entrenched payment industry. A 2019 Nilson Report reveals that the combined purchase transactions of Mastercard and Visa in both debit and credit cards amount to nearly 100 billion. That number represents a 100 percent growth from the close to 50 billion purchase transactions of Mastercard and Visa in 2009.
In contrast, bitcoin is processing over 300,000 transactions per day or an estimated 109.5 million transactions per year. Back in 2009, the highest number of transactions that the cryptocurrency processed is eight. In a ten-year period, bitcoin’s daily transaction volume grew by 3,749,900 percent. While the growth of bitcoin’s transaction volume is impressive, the orange coin is not in a position to disrupt the payments industry. Mastercard and Visa are not threatened by bitcoin. Both companies are light years ahead of the cryptocurrency.
The 2018 World Cash Report shows that 75 percent of nations with available cash survey reveals that cash is used in one out of two transactions. In Europe, close to eight out of ten transactions are conducted with cash. In the U.S., Australia, and the Netherlands, the use of cash appears to be in decline. One of the reasons why cash remains the top payment medium is because roughly two billion people do not have a bank account.
The institutional investors in the crypto-market: the play against the crowd
Bitcoin showed an impressive rally for over a thousand dollars last week. What’s more, the altcoin market tried to rise from the dead. For a long time, there was no even hope for that. However, all the right things once ended. In our case, maybe it’s just interrupting. At the beginning of the working week, Bitcoin lost almost 5% and traded around $8,650 on Monday morning. Investors considered the excess of $9K as enough level to take-profit. In the short term, it will be essential for Bitcoin not to decline below $8.5K and stay above the 200-day average. Altcoins also fall similar to bitcoin.
However, there was an important precedent: the buried by almost everyone asset class suddenly rose and showed at least speculative demand. Therefore, despite the impressive growth of the Bitcoin, it was still the altcoins that were the main event of the past week. Price of the Ethereum (ETH), the second most capitalized cryptocurrency, jumped 22%, while Bitcoin Cash (BCH) soared 48% and reached its maximum. The star of the Pump&Dump scheme, which strongly reminded market participants 2017, was the Bitcoin SV coin, spiked by 167% between January 13 and 15.
In a broader perspective, bitcoin-maximalists still believe that the “altcoin season” will be relatively short. Nevertheless, it will provide its holders with the opportunity to earn from significant spikes of volatility.
Still, the main star of 2020 should be bitcoin, where the $10K threshold may boost new wave due to internal factors (halving, institutional trading, real-world companies’ collaboration), as well as external factors from the traditional financial market. Among the latest, we should name short-sighted monetary policy that depreciates national currencies, geopolitics, populism, and the imminent approach of stock market correction.
Cryptocurrencies could become a kind of the “second pole” in the world of financial flows if the infrastructure for investment continues to be improved. It should be understood that these digital assets will become much more “down-to-earth” and, as before, the market will always play against the mass sentiment.