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 xtb
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Morning wrap

  • US indices surged yesterday after the administration unveiled some details of the stimulus package. However, the package is yet to be agreed on with Congress. S&P 500 finished 6% higher, Dow Jones added 5.2% and Nasdaq rallied 6.23%

  • Moods began to wane throughout the Asian session. Nikkei finished 1.68% lower, S&P/ASX 200 declined 6.43% while Kospi is trading almost 5% down. S&P 500 futures once again hit lower limit (-5%)

  • Number of confirmed coronavirus cases increased to almost 199 thousand while the death toll neared 8,000. Number of the active cases surpassed 100,000 for the first time yesterday

  • US stimulus package could amount up to $1.2 trillion, including $1000 direct handouts to all adult Americans

  • Steven Mnuching warned that US unemployment may increase to 20% without government intervention

  • Joe Biden won Democratic primaries in Florida and Illinois

  • Copper dropped below $5,000 per tonne today at London Metals Exchange. WTI is trading 2% lower to $26.40. Gold and silver are trading lower.

  • Japanese yen and Swiss franc are top performing major currencies while NOK and SEK take the biggest hit. USD trades mixed. EM currencies pull back

  • Italy banned short-selling for 3 months

  • Angela Merkel said that joint European Union debt issuance could be an option for raising cashto fight virus

  • Japanese exports declined 1% YoY in February while imports dropped 14% YoY. Drop in exports was smaller than expected

Yesterday saw the biggest number of new coronavirus cases reported. Over 120 countries reported new infections. Apart from that, number of active cases surpassed 100,000. 

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xtb
Posts: 75
 xtb
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Morning wrap

  • US indices finished yesterday’s session lower but off the daily lows. S&P 500 closed 5.18% lower, Dow Jones dropped 6.3% and Nasdaq declined 4.7%

  • Declines can be spotted all across Asia-Pacific region. Nikkei dropped 1.04%, S&P/ASX 200 declined 3.44%.Shanghai Composite is trading 1% down. Kospi hit lower trading limit (-8%). DAX futures point to a 1.5% bearish gap at open

  • Number of confirmed coronavirus cases increased to over 219 thousand. Death toll stands at 8,970. New Zealand and Australia decided to shut borders. The US-Canada border was shut for non-essential travel as well. Almost 72 thousand cases were confirmed in France, Italy, Spain and Germany combined (around a third of total).

  • RBA cut cash rate to 0.25%, delivering a second quarter point rate cut in March. 

  • ECB announced a pandemic emergency purchase programme worth €750 billion. Under the programme purchases of public and private sector securities will be carried until end-2020

  • Swiss franc is the top performing major currency as safe haven flows dominate. AUD and NZD decline severely. EM currencies trade lower

  • Gold and silver catch a bid while platinum lags. Industrial metals decline while oil tries to recover from multi-year lows

  • Australian unemployment rate dropped from 5.3% to 5.1% in February (exp. 5.3%)

  • Japanese CPI inflation slowed from 0.7% to 0.4% YoY in February. Core gauge came in at 0.6% YoY, in-line with expectations

Number of new confirmed cases reported each rises dramatically. Over 20,000 cases were reported yesterday and almost 1,000 deaths. 

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xtb
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 xtb
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Morning wrap

  • Wall Street indices managed to finish yesterday’s volatile session slightly higher. S&P 500 closed 0.47% higher, Dow Jones added 0.95% while Nasdaq surged 2.30%.

  • Moods in Asia are upbeat as well with Hang Seng trading over 3% higher and Kospi jumping over 6%. Australian S&P/ASX closed 0.7% higher while Nikkei was shut for holiday. DAX and FTSE 100 futures point to a higher open in Europe

  • Number of confirmed coronavirus cases exceeded 245 thousand while the death toll has risen to above 10,000. Italy reported over 5,000 new cases yesterday while the United States reported 4.5 thousand. On the other hand, less than 100 cases were reported in South Korea

  • USD snapped its rally after the Fed announced opening swap lines with some of the major central banks. AUD and NZD are top performing major currencies. EM currencies gain against the US dollar.

  • Bank of England cut rates to 0.1% yesterday and announced QE worth 200 billion GBP

  • RBA bought A$5 billion of government bonds in the first round of QE in history

  • Trump has cancelled G7 meeting in June and proposed a videoconference instead

  • People’s Bank of China left 1- and 5-year loan prime rates unchanged

  • ECB policymaker Guindos said that ECB “can always do more” and will act to prevent economic crisis becoming a financial one

  • Oil and precious metals trade higher with silver surging around 5%. Industrial metals trade mixed with copper lagging and nickel outperforming

Number of new coronavirus cases being reported each day keeps rising. Daily increase in the number of cases exceeded 25 thousand for the first time yesterday while the daily death toll has increased to over 1 thousand.

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xtb
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 xtb
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Morning wrap

  • Stocks markets in Asia and index futures from the United States and Europe. Kospi and S&P/ASX 200 dropped over 5%. HSCEI is trading 3.7% down. Nikkei closed 2% higher after it was closed on Friday. DAX futures point to an over 5% bearish gap at session launch

  • The US Senate failed to agree on a $2 trillion pandemic rescue package. There is a high likelihood that the package will not be agreed today as Senate Majority Leader McConnell planned

  • RBNZ announced a quantitative easing programme worth 30 billion NZD. New Zealand dollar declines against most of the major currencies

  • Number of confirmed coronavirus cases increased to 339,234 while the death toll rose to 14,703. More US states order residents to stay at home. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been put into quarantine after she contacted an infected person. McDonald’s will close restaurants in the UK and Ireland today. International Olympic Committee is said to be exploring options for Tokyo Games

  • Bank of Japan offered 800 billion JPY in repo operations

  • OPEC and US shale producers decided to start talks on the oil market situation. However, no details of the talks emerged over the weekend. Crude making a pull back at the beginning of a new week.

  • Gold and silver trade higher along with yen as risk aversion bites in. EUR and GBP are catching a bid as well. Industrial metals pull back

  • South Korean exports increased 10% You in the first 20 days of March

Coronavirus cases continue to rise dramatically. Number of confirmed cases in the United States jumped to above 35,000, putting it only behind Italy and China. Source: worldometers, XTB Research

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xtb
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 xtb
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Morning wrap

  • US equities failed to rally yesterday in spite of Fed announcing an unlimited QE. S&P 500 closed 2.93% lower, Dow Jones dropped 3.04% and Nasdaq slipped 0.27%. US Senate still did not agree on the coronavirus relief package but progress is said to be made

  • Better moods can be spotted in Asia with indices from the region surging. Nikkei closed 7.13% higher, S&P/ASX 200 gained 4.17% and Kospi is trading over 7% higher. Hang Seng trades 4% higher.

  • Number of confirmed coronavirus cases increased to 381,761 worldwide. Death toll jumped above 16,500. However, number of recovered people surpassed 100,000. New cases and new deaths in Italy have been declining for the previous 3 days

  • UK Prime Minister Johnson announced a national lockdown. South Korea will set up an equity stabilization fund as a part of relief measures. Canada will introduce new powers to spend money and raise taxes without need for Parliament’s approval. 

  • Japan’s flash PMIs for March showed manufacturing index dropping from 47.8 to 44.8 pts and services gauge diving from 46.8 to 32.7 pts.

  • Australia’s flash PMIs for March showed manufacturing dropping from 50.2 to 50.1 pts and services gauge declining from 49 to 39.8 pts

  • G20 leaders will hold a video conference on Thursday to discuss coronavirus outbreak

  • AUD and NZD are top performing major currencies while USD and CHF are top laggards. EM currencies gain.

  • Almost every commodity is trading higher on Tuesday morning. Precious metals gain being led by palladium, industrial metal rally with aluminium being an exception. Brent is catching a bid in an attempt to distance away from multi-year low

Number of new confirmed cases surpassed 40,000 for the first time yesterday. However, slowing down of spread in Italy can be seen as a promising sign. Source: worldometers, XTB Research

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xtb
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 xtb
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Economic calendar: Politics overshadow data

7:34 AM March 25, 2020
  • Risk trades gain as Republicans and Democrats agree on stimulus

  • UK CPI slowed in-line with expectations in February

  • Drop expected in US durable goods order in February

Risk assets continue to gain today after Republicans and Democrats finally agreed to a stimulus package. A vote is expected later today but it should be a done deal. However, be aware that politics are currently the driving force in the markets therefore any comments from Trump on the stimulus package may have some market impact. US and European futures are trading higher ahead of the cash session open. One of the major data releases scheduled for today – UK CPI inflation for February – has already been released after the Office of National Statistics decided to start publishing market moving data ahead of session open (7:00 am GMT). Report showed headline price growth slowing from 1.8% to 1.7% YoY, in-line with expectations.

9:00 am GMT – Germany, Ifo index for March. Expected: 87.5 pts. Previous: 96 pts

12:30 pm GMT – US durable good orders for February (flash).

  • Headline. Expected: -0.8% MoM. Previous: -0.2% MoM

  • Excluding Transport. Expected: -0.3% MoM. Previous: +0.8% MoM

2:30 pm GMT – DOE report on oil inventories. API data released yesterday pointed to a 1.2 million barrel draw in crude inventories. Oil is making a small rebound this week but outlook for demand remains poor after India, a country of 1.3 billion people, decided to impose national lockdown. Having said that, today’s release is likely to have only a short-term impact on the market.

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xtb
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 xtb
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Technical alert: DE30

9:19 AM March 25, 2020

European equities opened higher on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE30) broke above 10000 pts handle this morning and is trading 25% above recent low (8000 pts). Looking on the chart from a technical point of view, one can see that the upward move is supported by the inverse head and shoulders pattern. In case the current sentiment prevails, DE30 may move towards the 38.2% or even 50% Fibonacci retracement. Nevertheless traders should keep in mind, that the main trend remains downward.

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xtb
Posts: 75
 xtb
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Morning wrap

  • US indices finished yesterday’s session with massive gains on hopes that Democrats and Republicans agree on a stimulus bill. Dow Jones surged 11.36%, S&P 500 gained 9.38% and Nasdaq jumped 8.12%.

  • The Senate Majority Leader announced overnight that the deal has been reached and is likely to be put under the vote today. Text of the deal has not been disclosed yet but it will offer almost $2 trillion in tax breaks and additional spending

  • Stocks in Asia rallied today with Nikkei closing 8.04% higher. S&P/ASX 200 added 5.54%. HSCEI is trading over 3% higher. DAX futures point to a minor bullish gap at cash session open

  • Number of confirmed coronavirus cases surpassed 420,000 and the death toll rose to over 18,900. India decided on a national lockdown. New Zealand declared a state of emergency. Number of cases in the United States grew to almost 55,000.

  • China said that construction of 90% of major construction projects has been resumed

  • AUD and NZD are top performing major currencies while the US dollar takes the biggest step back. EM currencies trade mixed. Gold and silver pull back slightly

  • Oil advances for the third day with WTI trading near $25 a barrel. Copper gains while Nickel declines. Agricultural commodities trade higher

  • Trump administration is said to be mulling a 90-day deferral of trade tariffs

  • Facebook said it sees weakening in Ad business due to coronavirus pandemic

  • Reuters reported that Boeing may restart 737 MAX production in May

  • API data suggested a drop of 1.2 million barrels in crude oil inventories

There are still no signs of stabilisation in the rise of new confirmed coronavirus cases. To make things worse, cases rise dramatically in the United States, world’s biggest economy. Source: worldometers, XTB Research

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xtb
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 xtb
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Morning wrap

  • US indices finished yesterday’s session mixed. Dow Jones gained 2.39%, S&P 500 jumped 1.15% and Nasdaq dropped 0.45%. US Senate passed a coronavirus relief package. Once the House approves the bill it will be sent to the President for signature. Vote in the House is scheduled for Friday.

  • Moods are softer in Asia. Nikkei dropped 4.51% while Kospi is trading 1% lower. Equities in China experience minor pullback. On the other hand, Australian S&P/ASX 200 gained 2.31%. DAX futures point to a lower opening of the cash session.

  • Number of confirmed coronavirus cases grew to 471,802. Death toll has risen to 21,297. Cases in the United States jumped to 68,489 while the death toll surpassed 1,000. Singapore estimates its economy shrank at an annualized pace of 10.6% QoQ in Q1 2020.

  • Italian Prime Minister said that he is planning new stimulus measures that will be worth at least as much as the previous ones (€25 billion). IMF will provide low income and emerging markets countries with $50 billion through emergency facilities

  • AUD,CAD and NZD are the worst performing G10 currencies as risk-on moods fade. JPY and CHF are top gainers. ZAR, MXN and TRY decline against the US dollar

  • Declines dominate on the commodity market. Gold pulls back along with silver. Industrial metals drop. Crude is also taking a step back.

  • French business confidence dropped from 105 to 95 pts in March (exp. 97 pts)

The virus is everywhere with more than a half of all countries reporting new cases every day. Should the pace of the spread in the United States remain unchanged, the country is likely to have more cases than Italy in a day or two. Source: worldometers, XTB Research

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xtb
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 xtb
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Morning wrap

  • US indices surged yesterday as optimism over the stimulus package persisted. S&P 500 gained 6.24%, Dow Jones added 6.38% and Nasdaq jumped 5.6%. S&P 500 jumped around 20% this week.

  • Moods in Asia-Pacific region are upbeat as well. Nikkei closed 3.88% higher. Kospi gains 1.3% while Shanghai Composite gains 0.8%. On the other hand, S&P/ASX 200 dropped 5.3%.

  • Number of confirmed coronavirus cases jumped above 0.5 million with the death toll rising to 24 thousand. Number of cases in the United States surpassed the number of cases in China or Italy.

  • Donald Trump spoke with Xi Jinping over the phone. The two leaders agreed to cooperate on the virus pandemic

  • Chinese industrial profits dropped 38.3% YoY in January-February 2020.

  • EU-UK talks has been abandoned as negotiators say its impossible to hold them in current conditions

  • European leaders could not agree on details of ESM support

  • Trump said that some parts of the country could be reopened, including farm belt and some parts of the Midwest

  • United States moved forward with plans to limit supply of chips made by US tools to Huawei Technologies

  • Silver and platinum gain while gold trades flat. Industrial metals and crude oil trade higher.

  • AUD, GBP and JPY are top moving majors this morning while the US dollar continues to weaken

Over half a million people around the World have been already infected with novel coronavirus. According to official figures, the United States are now the country with the biggest number of infections. Source: worldometers, XTB Research

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xtb
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 xtb
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Morning wrap

  • Risk-off moods can be spotted during the first Asian session of the week. Nikkei declines 3%, Shanghai Composite drops 1% and KOSPI trades slightly below the flatline. On the other hand, Australian S&P/ASX 200 jumped 7%.

  • Number of confirmed coronavirus cases jumped to over 720 thousand. Death toll has risen to almost 34 thousand. While data continues to be poor, rise in new cases and deaths was somewhat smaller yesterday

  • JPY and USD are top performing major currencies as both benefit from risk-off flows. CHF, EUR and GBP take the biggest hit. EM currencies decline

  • Precious metals step back along with industrial metals. However, the scale of decline is not major. Bigger pullback can be observed on oil market, where WTI tested $20 handle

  • Australia decided that all foreign takeovers of domestic companies will be subject to regulatory approval

  • US pipeline operators asked producers to lower output as storage runs out

  • Donald Trump is said to stop the chase for reopening US economy by Easter

  • Australia will spend A$130 billion to support jobs

  • People’s Bank of China cut 7-day reverse repo rate from 2.4 to 2.2%

  • North Korea conducted another missile tests over the weekend

Coronavirus continues to spread fast around the world. However, the number of new cases and new deaths was smaller on Sunday, March 29 than the day before. Source: worldometers, Dział Analiz XTB

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xtb
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 xtb
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Morning wrap

  • US indices finished yesterday’s session with solid gains. S&P 500 added 3.35%, Nasdaq gained 3.62% and Dow Jones jumped 3.19%. Russell 2000 lagged and gained just 1.1%

  • Moods in Asia are mixed – equities from Australia and Japan closed lower while stocks in China and South Korea gain. DAX futures point to a slightly weaker beginning of the European cash session.

  • Number of confirmed coronavirus cases increased by over 60 thousand to 785 thousand. Yesterday was the deadliest day of the outbreak as 3,718 people died around the world. However, yesterday was also the day with the highest number of recoveries as those stood at over 14,000. 

  • Japan’s economy minister said the country is preparing a big stimulus package. Japan’s foreign minister advised against travel to 73 countries

  • Donald Trump said that nationwide “Stay-at-Home” order is unlikely

  • China’s manufacturing PMI for March jumped from 35.7 to 52 pts (exp. 44.8 pts) while non-manufacturing PMI improved from 29.6 to 52.3 pts (exp. 42 pts)

  • New Zealand business confidence dropped from -19.4 to -63.5 pts in March

  • Australia’s private credit data showed growth of 0.4% MoM in February (exp. +0.3% MoM)

  • Japan’s industrial production data for February showed a 0.4% MoM increase (exp. 0.1% MoM) while retail salones print showed a 1.7% YoY advance (exp. -1.2% YoY)

  • AUD and NZD are top gainers while JPY and GBP pull back. A small flash crash occurred during the Tokyo fix, sending USD significantly higher. However, those moves were erased already

  • Majority of commodities gain. Crude trades higher along with industrial metals. Small pullback can be spotted on the gold market

Number of new confirmed coronavirus cases jumped back above 60 thousand on Monday, after briefly dropping below on Sunday. However, yesterday was the day with the most new recoveries (+14,075). Source: worldometers, XTB Research

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xtb
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 xtb
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Morning wrap

  • US indices finished yesterday’s session lower. S&P 500 dropped 1.60%, Dow Jones declined 1.84% and Nasdaq slipped 0.95%. On the other hand, Russell 2000 managed to close 0.06% higher.

  • Mixed moods can be spotted in Asia. Australian and Chinese equities gain while declines can be spotted on stock exchanges in South Korea and Japan. DAX futures point to an over 2% lower opening in Europe

  • Number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 859,338 while the death toll stands at 42,334. More than 70 thousand new cases were reported yesterday for the first time. Moreover, yesterday was also the deadliest day of the outbreak with more than 4,500 deaths

  • Chinese manufacturing PMI for March (Markit release) jumped from 40.3 to 50.1 pts

  • BoJ Governor Kuroda said that if inflation nears 2% target, the Bank will have to adjust its policy to stabilise prices

  • There is some chatter that Trump may delay tariff payments for 90 days. However, the decision would not apply to goods from China

  • According to Trump, Russia and Saudi Arabia are discussing situation on the oil market, with focus on prices

  • API data released yesterday show a 10.5 million barrel increase in crude stockpiles (exp. +4.3 million)

  • Australia’s building approvals for February increased 19.9% MoM (exp. +3% MoM)

  • South Korea’s manufacturing PMI dropped from 48.7 to 44.2 pts in March

  • Precious metals are inching higher while industrial metals and crude pull back

  • NOK and USD are top moving majors while AUD and NZD lag the most. EM currencies decline against USD

Total number of confirmed coronavirus cases topped 850 thousand after more than 70 thousand new cases were reported yesterday. Almost 190,000 cases were already confirmed in the United States. Source: worldometers, XTB Research

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