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XM
Posts: 38
 XM
(@xm)
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EURUSD reaches 8-week low; more losses are expected

EURUSD has been underperforming in the past two days, breaking the almost four-month old ascending trend line to the downside. The price reached an eight-week low around 1.1019, distancing itself from the Ichimoku cloud and the short-term moving averages in the daily timeframe.

Momentum indicators are pointing to a negative bias in the short term as the RSI is hovering above its 30 oversold mark but below 50 and the stochastic oscillator is flattening in the bearish territory, both confirming the recent downward movement in the price.  Also, the MACD is strengthening its momentum to the downside below the trigger and zero lines.

Further losses should see the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1.0880 to 1.1240 near 1.1015. A significant drop below this area could open the door for the 1.0990 support, taken from the lows on November 27, while lower the price could hit the 1.0940 region, shifting the medium-term outlook from neutral to bearish.

In the event of an upside reversal, the 1.1040 resistance and the 50.0% Fibo near 1.1060 could attract buyers’ attention. A break above the latter could challenge of the 38.2% Fibo of 1.1100 and the 40- and 20-SMAs currently at 1.1110 and 1.1120 respectively.

Overall, EURUSD seems ready for a downside run following the penetration of the rising trend line. 

 

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XM
Posts: 38
 XM
(@xm)
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Joined: 1 month ago

GBPUSD faces symmetrical triangle; broader trend is bullish

GBPUSD is lacking direction over the last five weeks, creating a symmetrical triangle in the short-term after reversing from the 14-month high of 1.3515. When looking at the bigger picture, the pair has a clear bullish trend since September 2019 but technical indicators are confirming the recent neutral mode. The RSI is declining slightly below the 50 neutral level, while the MACD oscillator is failing to strengthen its momentum near the zero line.

Currently, the price is hovering below the 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs) and is heading towards the lower boundary of the triangle around the 1.3000 handle. Below that, a penetration of the triangle and the ascending trendline could also encounter some pressure at the 1.2960 support, before flirting with the 1.2920 obstacle, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 1.1957 to 1.3515, as well as the 1.2900 round number beneath. Clearing these key levels would see additional losses until the 1.2820 barrier, taken from the lows on November 22.

If the price remains above the rising trendline, then the focus would shift to the upside until the 23.6% Fibo of 1.3145, while if breached would increase upside pressure and drive the pair above the symmetrical pattern at towards 1.3210 and 1.3285.

Overall, GBPUSD would endorse its upside movement only if there is a daily close above the 1.3210 resistance barrier.

 

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XM
Posts: 38
 XM
(@xm)
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Joined: 1 month ago

USDJPY falls below 109.00; approaches uptrend line

USDJPY is holding losses below 109.00, dropping from the seven-month high of 110.28 and below the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Also, the pair entered the Ichimoku cloud and is trying to slip beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 104.45 to 110.28.

Technically, the price could lose more ground in the short-term as the RSI is changing direction to the downside and towards its 30 mark, while the MACD oscillator keeps weaking below the trigger line and has neared the zero line. However, the stochastics are warning – as are above the oversold zone – of a possible upside correction with the completed bullish crossover between the %K and %D lines.

A decline under the lower surface of the Ichimoku cloud could meet a strong barrier at the 38.2% Fibo of 108.05. A more powerful bearish penetration could open the way for the 107.65 level and the 50.0% Fibo of 107.35.

In the positive scenario, a rebound on the lower surface of the Ichimoku cloud (108.80), may keep the pair on the uptrend started from the 104.45 low in the end of August. Continuing north, resistance could be encountered at the seven-month high of 110.28. Higher, the price could flirt with the 110.65 and the 111.00 critical levels, identified by the tops on May 2019

In brief, USDJPY could lose further steam in the short term, while in the medium-term the pair continues to hold a positive outlook as it remains above the rising trend line. 

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XM
Posts: 38
 XM
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EURUSD may retest 1.1100 after rebound on 2-month low

EURUSD found some footing around the 1.0990 support level last week and returned back above the red Tenkan-sen line and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1.0880 to 1.1240 near 1.1060. Also, it touched a fresh one-week high near 1.1095 on Friday, signaling a possible upside correction of the pullback from 1.1240 in the short-term.

The price is currently testing the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and a former restrictive area – the Ichimoku cloud – where any decisive close higher may prove valuable to the market. The MACD oscillator surpassed its trigger line and is moving towards the zero line, gaining some ground, while the stochastic is reaching the overbought zone.

A continuation of the upward move may meet immediate resistance around the 38.2% Fibo of 1.1100, while slightly higher the bulls could try to overcome the 40-day SMA at 1.1107 and the 1.1120 barrier. Should the price overcome these levels, the 23.6% Fibo of 1.1155 and 1.1170 could come in focus.

In the negative scenario, the pair could challenge the 50.0% Fibo of 1.1060 again, while even lower the 61.8% Fibo is standing near 1.1015. The two-month low of 1.0990 could be the next level to watch before tumbling towards the 1.0940 hurdle, identified by the low on August 2019.

In brief, EURUSD is expected to pause the south-run in the short-term, while in the medium-term, buying interest could advance if the market confirms a surge towards the six-month peak of 1.1240.

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XM
Posts: 38
 XM
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GBPAUD to keep bearish mood in short-term

GBPAUD turned overbought near a fresh 3 ½-year high of 1.9750 last week, with the price drifting south along with the RSI and the MACD, which signal a bearish bias for the short-term in the four-hour chart.

 

The price itself is providing negative signals too as it is currently trying to close below the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 1.8550-1.9750 upleg after breaching the supportive 20-period SMA.

 

Should the sell-off continue, the 50% Fibonacci of 1.9200 should be the next level to watch given the area’s supportive reaction last week. Falling below the former 1.9150 mark, the door would open for the 1.9100-1.9037 region which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci and the 200-period SMA.

Alternatively, a rebound above the 50-period SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.9330 could encourage more buying probably towards 1.9440. Higher, the price may need to surpass the 20-period SMA and the 1.9521 barrier to extend the rally until the next key obstacle seen around 1.9626. Above the latter, all eyes will shift to the 3 ½-year high of 1.9750.

 

Meanwhile in the broader picture, the positive outlook has changed to neutral after the drop below the previous high of 1.9521. However, confidence in the market’s six-month old uptrend remains in place as long as the ascending trendline since July 30 keeps holding.

 

In brief, the short-term outlook for GBPAUD is bearish, while in the bigger picture, although the view has turned neutral, the upward pattern has not lost its long-term attractiveness yet thanks to the ascending trendline.

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XM
Posts: 38
 XM
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Joined: 1 month ago

EURJPY bounces back above 200-day SMA but bulls look weak

EURJPY regained positive momentum within the 120.00 territory on Tuesday after failing to breach support around 119.76. The pair jumped back above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) but could not enter the Ichimoku cloud from below nor rise above the broken ascending trendline.

Currently the momentum indicatorsprovide little hope for a meaningful rallyin the short-termas the RSI seems to be losing steam just below its 50 neutral level, while the Stochastics are not far below overbought levels, suggesting that any upside could be limited.

In themedium-term, however, the recent bullish cross between the 50- and the 200-day SMAs keeps optimism for an uptrending market alive.

A rise above the cloud and the former supportive trendline currently both around121.50could push resistance into the 122.86-123.30 zone where the bullish action was restricted the past few months. The 38.2% Fibonacci of the long bearish wave from 133.12 to 115.85 also lies within these boundaries, adding extra importance to the region. Surpassing that zone, the bulls may retest how strong the long descending tentative trendline from the 2018 top of 137.49 is. If this proves easy to get through, the next stop could be somewhere between the 50% Fibonacci of 124.50 and the 125.00 round-level, while higher a tougher barrier could be the area around 126.80 and the 61.8% Fibonacci.

Should the current weakness persist, the focus will shift back to the119.76mark which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci, while beneath that the bears could challenge the 118.57 trough taken from January 2019 before meeting support around 117.00

In brief, EURJPY looks neutral in the short-term and positive in the medium-term. 

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XM
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 XM
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GBPNZD maintains neutral-to-bullish bias above cloud

GBPNZD has been consolidating over the last four months with upper boundary the 2.0430 resistance and lower boundary the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg 1.8280 – 2.0550, near 1.9410. However, the broader picture remains positive as the price is hovering above the seven-month ascending trend line.

Turning the attention to the technical indicators, the RSI is sloping up after the bounce off the 50 level, while the stochastic is turning slightly higher before it hit the 20 level. Currently, the price is flirting with the red Tenkan sen line, distancing itself from the 23.6% Fibo of 2.0017.

 

Traders, however, would be more eager to engage in buying activities towards the 2.0430 resistance. If this is successfully breached, then the rally may next rest somewhere near the 2.0550 barrier.

 

Alternatively, a downside reversal below the 23.6% Fibo of 2.0017, then, the Ichimoku cloud and the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 1.9900 and 1.9815 could be the next levels to watch.  A steeper decline beneath the uptrend line could also reach the 38.2% Fibo od 1.9685, remaining within the neutral zone.

 

Briefly, traders’ may be on hold until the price continues the positive momentum in the longer timeframe. A bullish action would come after a jump above 2.0430.

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XM
Posts: 38
 XM
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EURUSD drops to a 4-month low; enters oversold area

EURUSD met strong resistance near the broken ascending trendline at the end of January and changed direction to the downside, violating its uptrend off 1.0878 and diving to a four-month low of 1.0940 early on Monday.

 

From a technical perspective, the short-term bias remains negative since all indicators are still located in the bearish area. Yet, the odds for an upside correction are increasing as the RSI and the Stochastics approach oversold levels.

Should an upside reversal happen, the bulls would try to close above 1.1000, which is marginally below the 23.6% Fibonacci of the downleg from 1.1447 to 1.0878. A successful breach of that level could add more legs to the rally, sending the price towards a tougher obstacle around 1.1094, where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the 38.2% Fibonacci and the ascending trendline all coincide. Running higher and more importantly above the 200-day SMA, buyers could gain extra confidence, with the spotlight turning next to the 50% Fibonacci and the 1.1175 area.

 

In case selling pressure extends below 1.0920, the nearest key support to watch is the 2019 trough of 1.0878. Clearing that floor, the bears could retest the 1.0815 former restrictive area ahead of the 1.0720 barrier taken from the lows of the 2015-2016 period.

 

In the medium-term window, the outlook remains neutral and only a rise above 1.1175 would cause a switch to positive sentiment.

 

Summarizing, EURUSD is viewed as bearish in the short-term with a potential for an upside correction rising. In the medium-term, the pair maintains a neutral outlook as long as it holds below 1.1175 and above 1.0878. 

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XM
Posts: 38
 XM
(@xm)
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Joined: 1 month ago

USDJPY looks fragile near recent peaks

USDJPY attempted to reach January’s 8-month high of 110.28 on Wednesday but efforts proved fruitless as the price pulled back into the 109.00 territory early on Thursday.

 

The falling RSI, which failed to resume upward direction on Wednesday, suggests that momentum in the price may remain weak in the short-term. Yet, as long as the indicator continues to move above its 50 neutral mark, upside corrections cannot be ruled out.

Currently, the 109.70 barrier is restricting the move down for the third consecutive day. Should it fall apart, the sellers may need to drive below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci of the 112.39-104.44 dowleg, to extend the downfall towards the ascending trendline.  A closing price below the trendline and the Ichimoku cloud, and more importantly beneath the 50% Fibonacci of 108.40 and the 200-day SMA, could trigger a new sell-off towards the 107.80-107.48 support area, where any break lower would confirm the start of a downtrend and a bearish outlook in the medium-term picture.

 

In case of a rebound, the bulls would push harder to clear the 110.00-110.28 resistance zone and head towards 110.70. Higher, the 111.40 mark has been a tough obstacle to upside and downside movements in the past and therefore should be watched if the rally picks up more steam.

 

In brief, USDJJPY is expected to be congested in the short-term unless the price falls below its shorter-term SMAs or rallies above 110.28. In the medium-term picture, a negative outlook would come into play below 107.48.

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XM
Posts: 38
 XM
(@xm)
Eminent Member
Joined: 1 month ago

USDCAD could lose more below 1.3235

USDCAD is set to close negative after five consecutive green weeks. Particularly, the bulls gave up the rally near the previous peak of 1.3326 on Monday despite piercing it and pulled back into the 1.3200 territory.

Expectations are for the cautious sentiment to stay in play in the short-term as the RSI is weakening towards its 50 neutral mark and the MACD is slowing below its red signal line.

Yet, whether the price will extend its sell-off or consolidate will likely depend on the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.3235 of the upleg from 1.2950 to 1.3228 which managed to prevent steeper declines earlier this week. Failure to hold above that number and importantly a close below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) could see a retest of the 1.3150 support number, which is just above the 50% Fibonacci and the 50-day SMA, if the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.3185 proves easy to break.  Further down, the 61.8% Fibonacci near 1.3100 could be another level to watch.

 

Should the price bounce on the 1.3235 barrier, traders could look for resistance within the 1.3300-1.3345 zone. Running higher, it would be interesting to see whether the tentative descending trendline drawn from December 2018 is strong enough to stop the rally and keep the medium-term picture neutral. If not, the 1.3430 mark could next come into view.

 

Attention will be also on the 20-day SMA which is pushing efforts to reach the 200-day SMA – a bullish cross between the lines could be encouraging for the market trend.

 

Summarizing, USDCAD is likely to further ease momentum if nearby support around 1.3233 falls apart. In the medium-term picture, the outlook is expected to hold neutral unless the price runs above the descending trendline.  

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XM
Posts: 38
 XM
(@xm)
Eminent Member
Joined: 1 month ago

USDCHF shows improvement in Ichimoku cloud; stands near 2-month high

 
USDCHF finally climbed above the strong support of 0.9760 that had been capping upside moves since late December and questions are rising now about whether the market can sustain the break in the coming sessions.  

The positive cross in the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs) drove the market within the Ichimoku cloud, while the MACD oscillator is painting a rosy picture for the short-term timeframe as it runs comfortably above the trigger line. Also, the RSI indicator is still holding in the bullish territory.

 

Traders would be more eager to engage in buying activities if the price manages to surpass the nearby resistance at 0.9850, where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.0235 – 0.9610 downleg is placed. If this is successfully breached, then the rally may next rest somewhere near the 50.0% Fibo of 0.9925 before touching the critical level of 61.8% Fibo of 1.0000.

 

On the flip side, the selling pressure could accelerate again if the market deteriorates below the 0.9760 former strong support area. Such a move could next bring the 0.9625 key barrier under the spotlight, which if violated could trigger sharper losses probably towards the 16-month trough of 0.9610.

 

Summarizing, USDCHF is expected to show improvement if the price overcomes the 0.9850 resistance zone after the rebound on the 0.9610 barrier on January 16.

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