Tech Analysis – XM
 
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XM
Posts: 70
 XM
(@xm)
Trusted Member
Joined: 5 months ago

USDCAD optimistic after correction from 50-month peak

USDCAD continues to find support from the mid-Bollinger band located at 1.4155, after a retracement from the multi-year top of 1.4667. Though price action has somewhat slowed, assisting this positive picture are the ascending simple moving averages (SMAs) and their intact bullish mode.

 

Additionally, the short-term oscillators hold a positive bearing. The MACD, despite falling below its red trigger line, is still deep in the positive zone, while the RSI remained in the bullish section, hovering above the 50 level. Further boosting an appreciation in price are the bullish stochastics, which have room to move.

 

If buyers manage to sustain the push off the mid-Bollinger band, initial resistance could come from the 1.4262 level – which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 1.2951 to 1.4667 – and the nearby swing highs of 1.4300 and 1.4348 overhead. Overcoming these barriers, the pair may rally towards the 1.4558 hurdle. Conquering this could open the door for a revisit of the 50-month top of 1.4667 and the January resistance of 1.4689 from back in 2016.

 

Otherwise, steering below 1.4155, initial support could come from the 1.4080 low ahead of the 38.2% Fibo of 1.4012 and the latest trough of 1.3921. Dropping past the important 1.3921 barrier, the price may come to rest at the 50.0% Fibo of 1.3810, which if broken, could see the key support of 1.3724 halt bears’ efforts for further declines.

 

Overall, with the positive signals still supporting the improving sentiment, the near-term bias is neutral-to-bullish above 1.3921. Moreover, the short-term outlook is bullish above the 1.3724 trough.

 

 

 

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XM
Posts: 70
 XM
(@xm)
Trusted Member
Joined: 5 months ago

USDJPY awaits nearby barrier to let the bulls out

 

USDJPY restored positive momentum on Monday and pierced the 109.00 level on the upside after stepping on the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart.

 

While some stabilization cannot be ruled out since the 23.6% Fibonacci of the 101.17-111.70 upleg is in the neighborhood and the fast Stochastics are fluctuating in the overbought territory,  the price could soon resume upside direction as the MACD is growing in the positive area and the RSI keeps pointing up.

Should the price close above the 23.6% Fibonacci of 109.20, the bulls should also breach the 110.00 level and the broken ascending trendline drawn from the 2019 low of 104.44 to extend the rally towards the 111.00 psychological mark and then up to the 111.70 peak.

 

Otherwise, a downside reversal could see the retest of the 108.25-107.66 region formed by the 200-period SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci. Failure to hold above this area could trigger fresh selling towards the lower Bollinger band and the 50% Fibonacci of 106.43, where any violation would mark a new lower low, reducing confidence on the March uptrend.

 

Summarizing, USDJPY is expected to trade bullish if the 109.20 barrier lets the bulls out.

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