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Facebook Wave Analysis

  • Facebook broke strong resistance level 208.00
  • Likely to rise to 218.00

Facebook recently broke above the strong resistance level 208.00 (former strong resistance level which stopped the sharp uptrend in July, and also wave 3 in December).

The breakout of the resistance level 208.00 accelerated the active impulse waves 5 and (3).

Facebook is likely to rise further toward the next round resistance level 218.00 (multi-year high from July of 2018 and the target for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

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Palladium Wave Analysis

  • Palladium broke resistance area
  • Likely to rise to 2150.00

Palladium recently broke the resistance area lying between the round resistance level 2000.00 and the resistance trendlines of the two daily up channels from November and August.

The breakout of this resistance area should accelerate the active impulse waves 3 and (C).

Palladium is likely to rise further toward the next resistance level 2150.00 (forecast price fort the completion of the active impulse wave (C)).

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Charles Schwab Corporation

  • Charles Schwab Corporation reversed from support area
  • Likely to rise to 49.00

Charles Schwab Corporation recently reversed up from the support area lying between the strong support level 46.50 (former multi-month resistance level from last year) and the 38.22% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse 1.

The upward reversal from this support area started the active impulse wave 3.

Charles Schwab Corporation is likely to rise further toward the next resistance level 49.00 (top of the previous short-term correction (b) from December).

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Coca-Cola Wave Analysis

  • Coca-Cola reversed from support area
  • Likely to rise to 55.30

Coca-Cola recently reversed up from the support area lying between the key support levels 53.70, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse wave (1).

The upward reversal from this support area started the active medium-term impulse wave (3).

Coca-Cola is likely to rise further toward the next resistance level 55.30 (high of the previous waves (1) from December and (B) from October).

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Brent Crude Oil Wave Analysis

  • Brent Crude Oil reversed from resistance area
  • Likely to fall to 64.00

Brent Crude Oil recently reversed down from the resistance area lying between the resistance levels 70,00 and 68.80 (top of the previous sharp wave (A) from September) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the previous multi-month ABC correction ② from August.

Brent Crude Oil is likely to fall further toward the next support level 64,00 (low of the previous short-term correction (iv) from December).

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S&P 500 has up to 20% upside this year — but don’t buy just yet, strategist says

S&P 500 has up to 20% upside this year — but don’t buy just yet, strategist says

 

The S&P 500 could advance by 10-20% this year, but investors should hold off on buying for the next few weeks, according to Chris Watling, the CEO of independent financial research firm Longview Economics. In a note published this week, Longview said its current market timing models are close to “sell” for the U.S. index, since risk appetite has become “greedy” and markets are “complacently priced.”

U.S. stocks jumped to record highs on Thursday as tensions between Iran and the U.S. cooled, with the S&P 500 closing 0.7% higher at 3,274.70. The index has surged 26.68% over the last twelve months. Watling recommended remaining “neutral” while high levels of risk appetite and sell signals unwind.

The latest AAII Sentiment Survey published on Thursday placed pessimism among individual investors at a six-week high. Bullish sentiment for the next six months is seen falling 4.1 percentage points to 33.1% versus a historical average of 38.0%. Bearish sentiment, or expectations that will stocks will fall over the next six months, jumped 8.0 percentage points to 29.9%.

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Groupon Wave Analysis

Groupon Wave Analysis – 10 January, 2019

 
  • Groupon reversed from long-term support area
  • Likely to rise to 2.60

Groupon recently reversed up sharply from the long-term support area lying between the strong support level 2.12 (which stopped the sharp downtrend at the start of 2016) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous short-term impulse wave (iii).

Groupon is likely to rise further toward the next resistance level 2.60 (former support from October).

 
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Boeing Wave Analysis

  • Boeing reversed from resistance area
  • Likely to fall to 321.00

Boeing recently reversed down with the daily Shooting Star from the resistance area lying between the resistance level 340.00 (top of the previous wave A from December), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (3).

The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the previous short term impulse wave C from the end of December.

Boeing is likely to fall further toward the next powerful support level 321.00 (which has been reversing the price from August).

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Alibaba Wave Analysis 

  • Alibaba rising inside sharp impulse wave C
  • Likely to rise to 240.00

Alibaba continues to rise inside the sharp impulse wave C, which recently broke above the resistance level 220.00 (which reversed the price at the start of January) and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from October.

The active impulse wave C belongs to the medium-term upward ABC correction from the middle of last year.

Alibaba is likely to rise further toward the next resistance level 240.00 (likely price for the completion of the active impulse wave C).

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Forget trade deal; Fed’s repo problems are serious

The official signing of the “Phase 1” trade deal between the US and China is set for today. Markets have been experiencing a rally since early December, as investors priced this news into quotes.

To date, the key US indexes look overbought on a variety of technical indicators, from RSI and Bollinger Bands to historically low levels of short positions. The Chinese Yuan was at its highest level against the dollar in six months yesterday, while the blue-chip index of the Shanghai Exchange China A50 has been trading at its highest levels since February 2018.

Such uniformity of opinion makes markets vulnerable to a correction in the style of “buy rumours, sell facts”. Asian markets already fully show signs of such profit-taking, as key indices on Wednesday showed some decline from the reached highs.

After signing of the Phase One a long pause on this issue is expected, so markets may well switch to other topics, including the presidential race and interbank liquidity issues in USA.

Despite relatively positive macroeconomic reports, the Fed continues to increase its support for the repo market, bringing the total injections above $400bn. Initially, it was considered a short-term problem, but since September, the volume of this emergency medicine grew almost every week.

The latest news on this issue was that the US central bank is considering giving out money directly to hedge funds. All this indicates potential problems with trust in the financial system despite soft monetary policy.

Financial problems tend to turn into economic ones rather fast, as GFC taught us. So the attention to the repo market and the Fed’s actions can now shift to the market focus for the coming months. For stock indices, the attention to this issue can quickly turn from profit-taking after the rally into a deep correction. The other safe-haven currency – the Swiss franc – turned to growth in early December.

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With new tax reforms, US are kicking the can down the road

Previous tax reform was in the end of 2017, but while there was a debate in Congress and the Senate, markets grew steadily throughout the year, adding more than 25% on S&P500 and 35% on Dow Jones. It may well turn out this time that the tax cuts will help markets to grow from the moment they are announced until the approval. And under these conditions, the achievement of Dow Jones 30,000 (+ 3% to current levels) may be seen as a very close and real target for market players, which will attract additional interest in the media, creating a favourable noise.

Of course, as always in such cases, there are no free lunches. The US economy has been creating jobs for the 12th consecutive year, companies and market analysts are looking to the future with confidence but still have an impressive budget deficit of about $1 trillion for the fiscal year ending in October 2018.

As long as the growing budget deficit does not lead to a loss of interest in American debt securities, markets may ignore this fact. However, the problem of a high debt burden will be challenging to solve instantly.

In this case, the most obvious solution may be to weaken the US dollar, which will spur inflation and eat up the real value of national debt. However, it is not so easy to do. The Fed can weaken the dollar only through monetary easing – a technique that is quickly copied by other central banks, as we saw in 2019. As a result, the dollar index showed the minimum volatility in recent years and even slightly increased.

There is much more room for manoeuvre for the US. Treasury, which may order the Fed to weaken the dollar, as well as agree with the authorities of other countries not to prevent this weakening. But this conflicts the idea of free markets, which the US itself so fiercely advocates. Moreover, a systematic weakening of the dollar risks undermining the demand for US debt securities, which would eventually result in higher government debt service costs.

The US chose to kick the can down the road, meantime continue to accumulate problems and even increasing efforts in this direction. In the short term, it does not harm the dollar, but it puts a time bomb under it, risking to repeat the scenario if not Greece of the 2010s, then Japan of the 1990s.

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Johnson & Johnson Wave Analysis

 
  • Johnson & Johnson broke key resistance level 146.90
  • Likely to rise to 148.70

Johnson & Johnson continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 146.90 (monthly high from December).

The breakout of the resistance level 146.90 continues the active weekly impulse wave 3 and is aligned with the longer-term uptrend from 2015.

Johnson & Johnson is likely to rise further toward the next multi-year resistance level 148.70 (which stopped the sharp uptrend at the end of 2018) – from where the price is likely to correct down.

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General Motors Wave Analysis 

 
  • General Motors reversed from support area
  • Likely to rise to 36.00

General Motors recently reversed up from the key support area lying between the support level 34.60 (which has been reversing the price from last October) and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support area started the previous weekly correction 2 from last November.

Given the strength of the aforementioned support area – General Motors is likely to rise further toward the next resistance 36.00.

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Alcoa Wave Analysis

  • Alcoa broke strong support area
  • Likely to fall to 16.50

Alcoa recently broke sharply through the strong support area lying between the key support levels 19.50 (low of wave (1) from December) and 18.3 (monthly low from October).

The breakout of this support area accelerated the active impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the medium-term impulse sequence (3) from December.

Alcoa is likely to fall further toward the next support level 16.50 (which stopped the sharp downtrend in August of 2019).

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Catepillar Wave Analysis

 
  • Catepillar reversed from support area
  • Likely to rise to 144.00

Catepillar recently reversed up from the support area lying between the key support level 140.00 (former multi-month resistance from last July), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse (i) from October.

The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous short-term impulse wave (c).

Catepillar is likely to rise further toward the next resistance level 144.00 (former strong support from the end of December).

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JPMorgan Chase Wave Analysis

  • JPMorgan Chase reversed from support area
  • Likely to rise to 135.00

JPMorgan Chase recently reversed up from the support area lying between the support level 130.00 (which reversed the price with the daily Morning Star in December), upper trendline of the weekly up channel form 2019, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from October.

The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous ABC correction 4.

JPMorgan Chase is likely to rise further toward the next resistance level 135.00 (former support from the start of January).

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3M Wave Analysis

  • 3M broke support area
  • Likely to fall to 162.65

3M recently broke below the support area lying between the key support level 171.30 (former resistance from December), support trendline of the daily up channel from October and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse (i).

The breakout of this support area accelerated the active short-term impulse wave (c).

3M is likely to fall further toward the next support level 162.65 (low of the previous ABC correction B from December).

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Chevron Wave Analysis 

  • Chevron reversed from powerful support area
  • Likely to rise to 114.00

Chevron recently reversed up sharply from the powerful support area lying between the long-term support level 110.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of 2019) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support area started the active short-term corrective wave (iv).

Chevron is likely to rise further toward the next resistance level 114.00 (former monthly low from November).

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Sprint Corporation Wave Analysis

  • Sprint Corporation broke long-term support level 4.80
  • Likely to fall to 4,000

Sprint Corporation recently broke through the powerful, long-term support level 4.80 (former yearly low from the start of 2018, as can be seen below).

The breakout of the support level 4.80 should accelerate the active impulse wave 3 – which is a part of the multi-month downward impulse sequence (C) from last year.

Sprint Corporation is likely to fall further toward the next round support level 4,000 – which is the target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3.

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Qualcomm Wave Analysis

 
  • Qualcomm reversed from support area
  • Likely to rise to 90.00

Qualcomm recently reversed up from the support zone located between the key support level 85,00 (low of the previous correction (ii) from the start of January), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upward impulse 1 from November.

The upward reversal from this support area started the active short-term impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the medium-term impulse sequence (3) from December.

Qualcomm is likely to rise further toward the next resistance level 90,00 (which stopped wave (b) of the earlier ABC correction 2).

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